How might climate change impact the future growth and distribution of holm oak trees in Mallorca?

Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on the future growth and distribution of holm oak trees (Quercus ilex) in Mallorca. These resilient evergreen oaks are well adapted to the Mediterranean climate, thriving in hot, dry summers and mild, wet winters. However, ongoing shifts caused by rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of droughts could challenge their traditional habitats. Prolonged periods of drought stress trees, reducing growth rates and making them more susceptible to pests and diseases, which could ultimately affect the overall health and density of holm oak populations on the island.

As temperatures continue to rise, the range of suitable habitats for holm oaks may shift, particularly in Mallorca’s mountainous areas. Higher elevation zones, which currently experience cooler and moister conditions, may become more hospitable, potentially allowing holm oaks to colonize these areas more extensively. Conversely, the lower, warmer, and drier coastal regions might see a decline in holm oak growth due to increased water stress and competition from more drought-tolerant species. This shift could alter the composition of local woodlands and impact the biodiversity that depends on holm oaks, from insects to larger animals.

Moreover, climate change may influence the regenerative capacity of holm oaks. Seed germination and seedling survival are sensitive to soil moisture and temperature, both of which are expected to become more variable. In years with severe drought, seedling mortality could increase, hindering natural regeneration and limiting the long-term sustainability of holm oak forests. Efforts to conserve and manage these woodlands may need to include strategies such as assisted migration or selective planting in areas predicted to remain suitable, ensuring that holm oaks continue to play their ecological and cultural roles in Mallorca’s landscapes despite the challenges of a changing climate.